For Southeast Asian founders and investors, 2025 presents a powerful paradox. We’re living in a time of extreme volatility—geopolitically, climatically, and technologically. Yet, in that volatility lies opportunity.

For decades, supply chains were a backend function—something startups outsourced, optimised, or ignored. But this assumption no longer holds. In today’s world, supply chains aren’t just operational—they’re strategic, visible, and investible. They define your startup’s resilience, sustainability, and ultimately, its valuation.

At the Fosus Asia Pacific Supply Chain Sustainability Summit 2025, I presented why global trade is shifting under the weight of multipolarity, climate change, and AI-driven digitalisation. For Southeast Asian founders, these aren’t distant megatrends. They’re the tectonic forces shaping how you build, scale, and exit in this decade.

Through this article, I hope to shine light on the opportunities startups and founders like yourself can capture in this geopolitically volatile world.

Multipolarity: Startups can’t be neutral in a fragmenting trade world

In a multipolar world, neutrality is a myth. The post-Cold War era of globalism, led by US-dominated institutions like the WTO, is fracturing. Regional blocs are replacing multilateral consensus.

• BRICS+ now includes not just Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, but also Indonesia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—emerging as a counterweight to the G7.
• The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) ties together ASEAN with China, Japan, and Australia, unlocking intra-Asian growth.
• The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), led by the US, focuses on digital standards and clean economy norms.

For SEA startups exporting hardware, electronics, or even food products—this fragmentation means regulatory balkanisation. You’ll face divergent data privacy rules, compliance requirements, and tariff barriers based on which markets or investors you align with.

To give an example, if your supply chain touches Taiwan, Singapore, India, and Europe—you’re no longer just managing logistics. You’re navigating a complex geopolitical chessboard. And you need to be good at it.

Also Read: Rethinking supply chains and trade in Southeast Asia amid global tariffs

Trade is a weapon, and you’re probably in the crossfire

Startups relying on AI chips, electric vehicle parts, or rare earths need to know this: access to critical resources is now political.

• In December 2023, China banned the export of rare earth extraction technologies, reinforcing its grip on materials that power EVs, drones, and smartphones.
• In early 2025, the US expanded AI chip export controls, placing Southeast Asian nations into “tiered compliance categories” that limit access to cutting-edge compute for data centres and LLMs.
• Ukraine peace talks now include rare earths in the negotiation table, which the long-awaited deal on the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund was recently signed in May 2025.
• Grain shipments out of Ukraine are conditional.
• LNG is rerouted via Singapore due to energy realignments in Europe.

These aren’t abstract events. They will shape your cost of goods sold, your product timelines, and whether your next big AI product even gets the compute power it needs.

So ask yourself: is your startup’s tech stack or component source geopolitically vulnerable?

Climate change will break your supply chain (or rebuild it smarter)

The IPCC’s 2023 report made clear: global infrastructure—especially its ports and coastlines—is highly vulnerable to extreme weather.

Take the Panama Canal drought in 2023. El Niño triggered severe water shortages, reducing ship capacity from 50 feet to 44 feet. Vessels had to offload cargo. Shipping delays stretched for weeks. Costs ballooned—groceries, parts, everything.

If you’re a founder building a physical product in the SEA region, and you don’t have climate disruption contingencies—you’re already behind.

But here’s the upside: climate change is also opening up new frontiers.

• Arctic trade routes are becoming navigable, slashing 30–40 per cent off shipping time between Asia and Europe.
• Countries like Russia are investing in Arctic infrastructure. The Northern Sea Route could become the next BRI. Who will build the predictive shipping platforms, port automation systems, and insurance products for these new lanes? That’s startup territory.

Sustainability isn’t just policy—it’s a funding advantage

Climate regulation is no longer a regulatory burden. It’s a market signal and a capital attractor.

• The IMO’s carbon reduction targets and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) mean your startup needs a carbon data story.
• If you’re in manufacturing, logistics, or agri-tech, expect Scope 3 emission disclosures to be part of tender requirements, partnerships, and funding due diligence.
• Green shipping corridors like Singapore–Rotterdam are leading the way in scaling zero-emission shipping, with clear investor interest.

If your startup contributes to carbon tracking, waste-to-value loops, or port-side optimisation, you’re building not just a business—you’re de-risking national infrastructure. Investors are watching.

Also Read: Enhancing cyber supply chain resilience: A vision for Singapore

AI and digitalisation: The supply chain itself is becoming smart

If you think AI is just for apps, think again. It’s transforming the physical layer of how trade works.

• 77 per cent of WEF Lighthouse Factories now use analytical AI for predictive maintenance and logistics optimisation.
• Generative AI is already being used to automate procurement workflows, simulate design specs, and validate manufacturing feasibility.

Midea in China, for instance, slashed product design lead times by 45 per cent using an in-house PLM platform. That’s not a SaaS unicorn—that’s what smart manufacturing looks like in 2025.

Meanwhile, Xiaomi’s Su7 EV factory has gone fully “dark”—718,000 sqm of space, 700 robots, only 30 humans. Car produced every 76 seconds.

The opportunity? Founders building for factory intelligence, robotics coordination, predictive quality control, or blockchain-tracked ESG compliance are sitting on untapped verticals.

DAOs, tokenised trade, and the borderless supply chain

Enter the next frontier: Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs).

Imagine a smart contract-based procurement system that doesn’t rely on a central platform—but executes payments, delivery terms, and ESG verification automatically. With blockchain as a backbone, carbon data becomes immutable. Trade financing becomes instantaneous. Supplier compliance is no longer manually audited—it’s verified on-chain.

Sounds fringe? Ethereum did it. Supply chains will do it next.

And if you’re building infrastructure for DAOs, smart contract standards, or cross-border digital trust layers—you’re not early. You’re right on time.

To conclude: In 2025, supply chains are a founder’s edge

At the Fosus Summit, I said that supply chains are no longer invisible—they’re now geopolitical chess pieces, climate resilience testbeds, and digital battlegrounds.

Founders who master this space—who understand that the new battlegrounds of commerce are not only price and product but route, regulation, and resilience—will lead the next generation of SEA unicorns.

And investors: if your thesis doesn’t include supply chain resilience, digital trade infrastructure, or decarbonisation platforms, you may be underestimating where the next breakout opportunity will come from.

Supply chains and geopolitics are no longer in the back office anymore. We’re at the frontlines.

Follow ‘Geopolitical Action 4 Leaders‘ for actionable insights in a Geopolitically VUCA world.

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