The global landscape is shifting amid increased uncertainty that is influenced by geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies and rapid advancements in technologies such as artificial intelligence.

It is important for Southeast Asia to understand these trends to navigate the uncertainty and discover opportunities in this rapidly evolving business environment. While there are challenges, there are also opportunities for the region to strengthen its position and drive sustainable growth.

Here are key global trends and their possible impact on the Southeast Asian ecosystem in 2025.

Trade-offs of Trump’s tariffs

Since returning to office, President Trump has introduced protectionist or “America First” trade policies that could disrupt global supply chains. For instance, President Trump signed executive orders on 1 February to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China which raised concerns over inflation and production costs.

This poses significant risk to Southeast Asia, a region that is heavily reliant on exports. U.S. goods exports to ASEAN reached US$124.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 16.6 per cent from 2023. While these measures could increase costs for businesses dependent on international supply chains, they may also drive production to Southeast Asia as companies seek alternatives due to tariffs on China.

Although some industries such as electronics and manufacturing might be impacted due to rising costs and fluctuating demands, the region can benefit from a reconfiguration of global supply chains.

Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia are focused on strengthening their manufacturing sectors with investor-friendly policies, and will likely benefit from new capital inflows and business relocations. This could further boost industrial growth and create new job opportunities in the region.

Also Read: Wall Street’s reckoning: How Trump’s words sparked a global sell-off

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and how it will shape the region

The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is another factor that could affect Southeast Asia. While interest rates have remained steady at 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent, there is increasing uncertainty due to concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s stance on future rate hikes or cuts as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Higher interest rates could post a threat to both emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) in Southeast Asia. However, it does not specify which countries fall under each category. According to the World Bank, an increase in U.S.interest rates, especially driven by shifts by the Federal Reserve’s stance, will have an adverse impact on financial conditions in emerging markets and developing economies.

An extended period of high interest rates could slow down regional growth by limiting business expansion and reduce investors’ interest in riskier assets such as venture capital and private equity investments. These assets are sensitive to interest rate movements as higher borrowing costs make acquisitions and funding rounds more expensive and that leads to lower valuations and reduced potential returns.

Such movements may result in a slowdown in investment activities in the region. Conversely, if interest rates go down, Southeast Asia could see a return in investments which will enhance the region’s competitiveness and long-term economic resilience.

The movement in interest rates also impacts retail investors in addition to institutional investors.  Investors in Southeast Asia need to stay informed of shifting interest rates and the impact on their investment strategies as different equities react differently to interest rate movements.

Also Read: Global markets in flux: Trump’s tariff pause and bitcoin reserve shake sentiment

For instance, dividend stocks tend to be more attractive when rates are stable as they offer steady cash flow, while growth stocks benefit from less volatility in borrowing costs that allow companies to resume long-term investments. Growth stocks could see a rise if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates later. However, if interest rates are sticky and rate hikes return, growth stocks could experience headwinds.

A shift in AI narrative

AI will continue to be a major trend in 2025, with new AI advancements transforming the industry. The  initial AI rally was led by hardware companies such as NVIDIA as companies relied on their high-performance chips to power advanced AI systems. However, as AI adoption continues to rise, the focus has started to pivot to software driven solutions.

Palantir exemplifies this trend and has emerged as a leader in operational AI decision-making tools. The company helps enterprises process their data and turn them into actionable insights to improve decision making and enhance operational efficiency.

The next phase of AI will focus on companies, like Palantir, Snowflake and Marvell, which are driving AI adoption through data utilisation, enterprise integration, and scalable revenue models.

Simultaneously, competition in the industry is ramping up and driving greater innovation as companies find ways to make AI more scalable in key areas such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, healthcare, and generative AI.

This presents new opportunities for companies in Southeast Asia to leverage AI to automate their processes, boost their operational efficiency and improve decision-making to fuel business growth. The shift from AI hardware to software underpins the growing realisation that AI’s true potential lies in its application across industries, not just in the hardware powering it.

These global trends will continue to shape Southeast Asia’s business landscape in 2025 and beyond. The region’s ability to navigate shifting trade policies and the pivot from AI hardware to software will be crucial in defining its trajectory and performance in the global economy. Southeast Asia can drive its next wave of growth by staying agile and intentionally capitalising on these trends.

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Image courtesy: DALL-E

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